Chase Field will witness a tension-filled showdown when the Arizona Diamondbacks host the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday, July 18. More than just another regular season game, this game could set the tone for both teams heading down the stretch.
Arizona tries to cut a negative streak and stay alive in the fight for the wild card. St. Louis, on the other hand, arrives in a better position, but also with question marks after a recent slump.
Both teams need wins like oxygen. The Cardinals have a more benevolent schedule, but must avoid letting opportunities slip away. For the Diamondbacks, winning at home has become a must. With the close of the season approaching and the trade deadline on the horizon, this matchup may have more impact than it seems.
Current Context of Each Team
Neither Arizona nor St. Louis has been consistent lately, and that has put extra pressure on this three-game series.
Arizona is coming off of losing more than it wins, with only four wins in its last 10 games. Their offense averages just over five runs per game on the season, but has dropped in production in recent weeks.
In addition, their pitching has been unreliable, especially in the final innings. Starter Brandon Pfaadt will be in charge of starting this duel, and although he has shown flashes, his effectiveness of 5.16 leaves doubts against an offense like that of the Cardinals.
St. Louis also does not have the wind at its back. They lost eight of their last 12 games before the break, including a painful sweep against Pittsburgh. However, they remain close to the wild card zone and a good run would put them back in the conversation. Andre Pallante will be their card on the mound.
Although coming off a poor outing against Washington, they had shown solidity in their previous performances.
Record Between the Two: Cardinals With Advantage, But Close
The Cardinals have been a tough opponent for Arizona in recent years. In fact, in the previous series between the two this season, St. Louis took all three meetings by the slimmest of margins. That may seem small, but it reflects a trend.
| Statistics | Diamondbacks | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Total mutual victories | 22 | 42 |
| Victories at home | 10 | 21 |
| Average runs per game | 4.13 | 4.93 |
Although the Cardinals dominate overall, the Diamondbacks have been more competitive at home. The average run differential shows that the visitors have been more effective offensively, but by very small margins. This balance suggests that another close game is likely.
Pitcher's Duel: Pfaadt vs Pallante
Both openers have something to prove, and their performance will be key to the development of the match.
Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks)
- Record: 9-6
- Effectiveness: 5.16
- Last start: 8.0 IP, 2 ER vs Padres (win)
- vs. Cardinals: 3 games, 11 runs in 17 IP (ERA 5.82)
Pfaadt is coming off a solid performance, but has historically struggled with the St. Louis offense. He will need to better control counts and avoid leaving runners on base if he wants to keep his team in the game.
Andre Pallante (Cardinals)
- Record: 5-5
- Effectiveness: 4.49
- Last start: 6.0 IP, 7 ER vs. Nationals (loss)
- Against Arizona: 1-0 in 7 appearances (all as a reliever).
Pallante struggled in his last game, but has a good recent record overall. His challenge will be to withstand Arizona's batting in the first few innings. If he gets through the start, he can settle in nicely.
Players to Watch
With two offenses capable of generating damage, there are names that could make the difference with a single swing or a key defensive play.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Corbin Carroll: his performance in the All-Star Game showed that he is still dangerous, especially at home.
- Ketel Marte: brings power and contact, vital to generate careers early on.
- Eugenio Suárez: key at third base and with occasional power, although he is hurt after being hit by a ball.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Brendan Donovan: solid in the All-Star Game, brings consistent offense from the middle of the order.
- Paul Goldschmidt: although he has been cold, his experience and power make him a permanent threat.
- Lars Nootbaar: can contribute from the back of the lineup, especially if there is on-base traffic.
Prediction and Final Forecast
This will not be a high-voltage offensive duel. Both teams have flaws that have limited their recent performance, but they also have talent that can explode at any time. The conditions at Chase Field could favor the hitters, but the starting pitching can keep the score close.
Final Odds: St. Louis Cardinals Win
Estimated score: Cardinals 4 - Diamondbacks 3
Suggested Bet: Less than 8 total runs
St. Louis appears to be better put together, even in the midst of a losing streak. Arizona needs more consistency in its bullpen and timely at-bat production. If the Cardinals can capitalize on a couple of mistakes, they could leave Phoenix with a valuable win. The margin will be slim, but experience and performance in head-to-head matchups tip the scales slightly in favor of the visitor.
